Can former President Donald Trump break the Republican record for Hispanic presidential vote share? Doing so may determine whether he returns to the White House.
Latinos now account for 15% of eligible voters and are one of the nation’s fastest-growing racial or ethnic group. In 2020, Trump defied predictions and increased his share of the Latino vote, winning 38%. That’s within striking distance of the Republican modern-day high-water mark of 40% set by George W. Bush in 2004.
Polls suggest Trump will break that record this fall and may win the Hispanic vote outright. A recent New York Times poll shows Trump polling at 46% among Hispanics, surpassing President Joe Biden.
If Trump can solidify this lead, he could flip states he narrowly lost in 2020, including Arizona, which he lost by 10,457 votes, Georgia (12,670 votes), Wisconsin (20,682), and Nevada (33,596). These states’ combined 43 electoral votes would have been enough to propel Trump to reelection.
‘Given how close states like Arizona and Nevada were in 2020, a seven-point shift in vote share among Latinos to Trump in 2024 would likely be enough to flip both states into the red column,’ writes the Cook Political Report.
No wonder Biden is desperately trying to stop his bleeding support among Hispanics. In a recent interview on Univision, he ridiculously said Trump ‘despises Latinos.’ His campaign has launched a new Hispanic initiative called Latinos con Biden-Harris. ‘I need you badly,’ Biden admitted at its launch in Phoenix. ‘I need the help.’
But the damage is already done. Democrats’ bad policies have disproportionately hurt Latinos. High inflation, which has increased nearly 20% over Biden’s term, acts as a regressive tax on Hispanics who tend to earn less than average Americans.
Democrats’ base of coastal elites don’t notice food, rent and gas prices, but those are hitting hardworking Hispanics hard. High crime due to Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies especially impacts working-class communities where many Latinos live.
In other words, Hispanics are on the front lines of America’s economic and social decay. It’s no surprise that polls show they care far more about these kitchen table issues than Americans as a whole.
Hispanics also remember how much higher their quality of life was under Trump. In contrast to the declining real wages under Biden, Hispanic household incomes rose 12% (nearly $7,000) between the beginning of 2017 to the beginning of 2020.
‘Frankly, the Trump years prior to the pandemic were actually relatively better for working-class voters, including nonwhites, than the first three years of the Biden administration,’ notes longtime Democrat political analyst Ruy Texeira.
For the past several years, we’ve chronicled Latinos’ movement to the political right. We’ve pointed out how Hispanics’ emphasis on faith, family, and entrepreneurship makes them far more politically aligned with Republicans.
Polls suggest Trump will break that record this fall and may win the Hispanic vote outright. A recent New York Times poll shows Trump polling at 46% among Hispanics, surpassing President Joe Biden.
Democrats’ obsession with abortion, faculty lounge views on cultural issues, and tax-spend-and-regulate economic policy that destroys job opportunities increasingly repels Hispanic voters. Republicans, the party of faith, family and entrepreneurship, welcome them.
One reason for this political migration is that Hispanics are overcoming America’s racial economic gaps through entrepreneurship. Latinos are nearly twice as likely to start their own business. They are not the oppressed ‘people of color’ Democrats make them out to be. They want to succeed on their own hard work and merit. And Republican free market policies will help them get there and live the American Dream.
‘Latinos are Republicans,’ said President Ronald Reagan. ‘They just don’t know it yet.’ This is the year Hispanics will finally find their political home.
Alfredo Ortiz is president and CEO of Job Creators Network, author of ‘The Real Race Revolutionaries,’ and co-host of ‘The Main Street Matters’ podcast.
